Credit: Sports Illustrated
To start our player analysis series we will cover Jackson Merrill, the breakout rookie star for the San Diego Padres. Key metrics like percentile rankings and WAR (wins above replacement) are used originally to find players, and subsequently a decision is made to hone in on one player. Then, specific player data from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference will be used to analyze and value a player's skills and contributions to their team.
OVERVIEW / BIOGRAPHY
Jackson Merrill is an outfielder in his rookie season for the San Diego Padres. Born on April 19, 2003 in Baltimore, Maryland, Merrill is 6-3/195lb and was drafted 27th overall in the 1st Round of the 2021 MLB Draft. From Severna Park High School in Maryland, the left-handed hitter made his Major League debut on March 20, 2024, aged just 20 years and 335 days old.
Through Sept. 21, 2024, Merrill has played 150 games, possessing a .294 batting average, .327 on-base %, 24 home runs, 89 runs batted in, 16 stolen bases, 28 walks, and notably was named an National League All-Star.
Merrill's power-speed combination and stellar Rookie season has put him firmly in the top 3 for NL Rookie of the Year award voting. However, Pittsburgh Pirates' ace Paul Skenes leads the race, with Milwaukee Brewers' youngster Jackson Chourio not too far behind.
METHOD
Using FanGraphs' ranking of all qualified hitters based on WAR, a value/rank was assigned 1 to 131 for each player was assigned (1 being Aaron Judge the top ranked player with 10.4 WAR, and 131 being Bryan De La Cruz, the lowest ranked qualified player with -1.3 WAR).
Next, Baseball Savant's percentile ranking system was used, with a value of 1 signaling that the player is only better than 1% of MLB hitters at that metric, and a value of 100 signaling the player is better than 100% of MLB hitters. It is important to note that multiple players can be in the same percentile because of the nature of only being able to rank players with whole numbers.
A total of 19 different metrics are used to place value on a hitter's ability at the plate, speed on the basepaths, and throwing arm and fielding ability. A cumulative score was then calculated for all qualified hitters in Baseball Savant's database. For example, being in the 100th percentile in all 19 categories would give a score of 1900, statistically showing you're the best player to ever live.
Ranking 15th in WAR and 13th in cumulative percentile rankings (average of 14th) is indicative of just how strong Jackson Merrill's ROOKIE season was compared to the rest of the hitters in the Major Leagues. Hence, Merrill was chosen for this first player analysis as he ranks high in both statistical analyses, but he is relatively unknown to many compared to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
RESULTS
Now, onto to analyze and evaluate Jackson Merrill's WAR ranking and cumulative percentile ranking. For total WAR (wins above replacement), Merrill ranks 15th with a 5.1 WAR, which means the San Diego Padres have a 5.1 more wins currently with Merrill playing centerfield for them than if a replacement-level Minor League player was playing at that same centerfield position for the Padres.
Merrill's total cumulative percentile ranking stats comes to a sum of 1371, which puts him 13th overall. As seen in the 2024 MLB Percentile Rankings chart, his top three metrics, excluding the top "Value" section, are expected batting average (xBA) in the 97th percentile at .302, expected slugging percentage (xSLG) in the 96th percentile at .541, and defensive range, or outs above average in the 95th percentile at a value of 10.
The percentile rankings showcase Merrill as a power-speed threat who can hit for average as well as play Gold Glove defense in the outfield. This checks all the boxes of what an organization and manager want out of a player of his archetype, and this is only Merrill's first season in the MLB at 21 years old!!
For areas of improvement, Merrill's Chase % (swings at balls out of the zone) and BB % (amount of walks drawn out of total plate appearances) are very low at 14th and 8th percentile respectively, showcasing a lack of discipline when he is at bat. This eagerness to swing, and not walk is then exploited by pitchers to get him out by throwing low and away, which is shown by 19% of pitches being thrown there in the Pitch % chart. However, as we'll see later, if pitchers miss over the heart of the plate with Merrill, he'll make them pay.
In the 2024 Hits Spray Chart, you can see all 157 hits of Merrill's season so far. As a lefty hitter Merrill has the ability to drive the ball all over the field, and for power, evident by the locations of the blue, yellow, and pink dots. This makes it much more difficult for pitchers to locate certain pitches against him in the zone, This is because he could easily hit a pitch to the opposite field in left field for a single (orange dot) with a pitcher trying to locate an low and away fastball or backdoor breaking pitch on the outside corner.
Looking at the Statcast Zone Charts for Batting Average and Slugging percentage (SLG), as a lefty Merrill stands on the right side of the plate in the image. To support the claim made in the previous paragraph, Merrill excels at pitches thrown in the bottom two thirds of the plate (the bottom six boxes in the nine sector grouping) and low and in on the outside part of the zone. He then connects with the pitches thrown in these zones with the sweet spot of his at a high rate (94th percentile in LA Sweet Spot%), which garners his success. While he has not had as great of success in the upper strike zone portions and outside larger zones (as mentioned earlier), his hitting ability within the strike zone goes unmatched, proven by the earlier research ranking him top 15 in both WAR and cumulative percentile rankings and his physical on-the-field output.
CONCLUSION
As an up and coming rookie, many people might not know of Jackson Merrill's name. However, his efforts, along with the rest of his teammates, have not gone unnoticed as the Padres currently sit at a 90-66 W-L record, in pole position to be the first NL Wild Card spot, and 4th seed overall as the MLB Postseason approaches.
Overall, Merrill can be seen as a player with tremendous extra-base hit/home run hitting power, who can also hit for average, display his great speed on the basepaths, and make stellar run-saving plays in the outfield. Be on the lookout for this stud!
All credit goes to Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference for helping aid me in my research and analysis.
Kommentarer